OSY Discussion Forum

[AllYorBaseRBelong2Us]

Let's get this out of the way. AYB lubs teh Cubbies!

They are his current favorite to win the National League title and go onto the World Series.

Let's look at the lineup their likely to start the season with:

C) Micheal Barret
1b) Derek Lee
2b) Todd Walker / Mark Grudzienalek
3b) Aramis Ramirez
SS) Alex Gonzolez
LF) Moises Alou
CF) Corey Patterson
RF) Sammy (Say it 'Aint) Sosa

Catcher: Barret really isn't a great catcher. He posesses inconsistent power at the plate and not much else. His arm isn't great, he's not smooth behind the dish, so he's just a replacement-level body in terms of being a backstop. look for a .250 average, 8-12 HR, and 50-60 RBI and perhaps a few stolen bases (he does run well for a catcher)

First Base: The Cubs biggest signing this past offseason. This guy is a *Great* pickup from the Florida Marlins. Over the last three seasons he has hit .270 - .282 with 21, 27, 31 homeruns respectively. His On Base Average (OBP) has been very good at nearly .38 each of the last two seasons. These stats become even more remarkable when you consider that his home ballpark for the last number of years is known as a 'Pitcher's Park'. Wrigley Field is a notorious Hitter's Park with short fences and limited foul territory. From that, it is quite imaginable that he could hit .290 - .300 with 35 Homers this year, all while providing top-notch defense, as well as stealing at least 15-20 bases.

Second Base: Walker (left handed) and Grudzienalek(right handed) can hit. Neither of them are great fielders, though at least while Grudz is steady, Walker is inconsistent. Both lack range at this position. However, they are likely to platoon as a righty/lefty combo that will be very productive at the plate. Collectively, this combo may hit for a .280/.290 clip with a decent OBP and hit around 12-15 HRs. When one plays, the other will be a fine pinch hitting solution off the bench.

Third Base: Ramirez is a strong guy who's capable of hitting .260-.280 with 25-30 homers a year. he doesn't have great plate disipline and is very clumsy at third, but he's still young and has a very high cap.

SS: Alex Gonzalez is not too bad of a player. He has some pop to his bat hitting 20 homers last year, but his lifetime average of .243 and OBP of just over .300 is not at all impressive, even for a shortstop. he is a very steady defender who should make less errors this year after aquainting himself to a completely different infield. He has plus range and arm-strenght and should prove a bright spot. expect .245 18hr

LF: Alou is getting old and is past his prime. Last year, he did hit .280 with 22 homers and served to protect Sosa in the lineup, but at his age his health and declining skills should be a concern. It's reasonable to expect a repeat performance of last year, if he stays healthy. His defensive ability is adaquate.

CF: Corey Patterson hit very well after being moved from the top of the order, totaling .298 with 15hr and 55 in only 329 at bats. He's an aggressive hitter that rarely walks and will be much more of an asset lower in the order. He runs very well, has top-tier defensive skills as far as range and arm are concerned and has the ability to steal a lot of bases. This might be a breakout season for him: Projection: .305 22hr 25 stolen bases.

RF: Sosa Missed some time last year, but still managed to hit 40 ding-dongs. He's 35 and age is becoming a concern for one of the Game's premier power hitters, but expect .270 with 45 homers.

Batting Order:

There is no clear cut leadoff hitter here. Patterson languished in that role the last few seasons and no one has the combo of patience and speed you like to see in this position.

Here's what AYB would do:
1) Walker/Grudz -2b
2) Lee -1b
3) Patterson -CF
4) Sosa -RF
5) Alou -LF
6) Ramirez -3b
7) Barret -C
Gonzalez - SS
9) Pitcher

Defensively, the team has some real weaknesses at third and second (and perhaps catcher), but as we look at the type of pitching staff they have, it might not end up being too bad of a situation
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This and other statistics can be culled from Jeremy Reimer's Personal Computer Market Share: 1975-2002, a very impressive piece of information gathering. The numbers tell some very interesting stories.
- http://lowendmac.com/musings/03/0131.html

Man, I need to get out more. You know smam is getting to you when you go to a canadian restaurant and start wondering about moose cock. -OscarWilde

Torturing a dog or a cat for sport is not disgusting because animals have rights, it is repugnant because human beings have obligations. If animals look to us as gods, and we in turn torture them, have we not willingly made ourselves into devils? -Johan Goldberg http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2003852165_goldberg27.html

You are a strange creature, Jeremy. *

[AllYorBaseRBelong2Us]

Pitching Rotation:

1) Mark Prior
2) Kerry Woods
3) Greg Maddux
4) Matt Clement
5) Carlos Zambrano.



This is probably the finest rotation anyone will field in 2004, maybe even easily the best since the Maddux, Avery, Glavine, Smoltz days of the early 90's Braves. What these guy's feature (except for maddux) is the strikeout.


Clement is a guy who's re-railed his career by finding some command of his pitches. His lack of control once got him shelled earlier in his career, but not with his improved control he has become very effective. While he'll still walk four batters or so every 9 innings, the natural movement on his pitches results in a high number of strikeouts (386K's in 406.2 innings as a Cub) and a lot of ground balls. He can be counted on for 200+ innings a season. Projection 15-9 3.96 ERA, 187 K, 80BB

Zambrano is the youngest member of this rotation at 23 years old. Last season he had an impressive 3.11 ERA with a 13-11 record. He pitched 214 innings with 168 strikeouts but 94 walks. He's a pitcher a lot like Clement: Great strikeout potential and produced a lot of ground balls (having subpar second and third basemane wont help him as much in this regard). Hopefully for the Cubs, he can find better command before Clement did: Projection: 14wins 3.78 ERA, 200 IP, 166 So.

The Venerable Greg Maddux, now rejoining Chicago, won't enjoy numbers reminiscent of his glory days with either the Cubs or Atlanta, but will offer 180+ innings with few walks and a respectable ERA ander 4.00. The other pitchers could learn a lot from a this guy, a control pitcher who's gotten by on accuracy, deception, and intelligence all these years. he has never been a strikeout pitcher, but his defense won't get bored on the mound as he works quickly. He could easily win 16 games again.

Woods is a premier power pitcher who struck out 266 batters in 211 innings last year. Despite concerns on running into high pitchcount and wearing himself out early in games, he topped 200 innings for the second consecutive year. Perhaps with the bullpen they have, they ought to carefully limit him to prevent a repeat of 1999 when he missed his entire second season due to arm injury because of overthrowing and such. He walked 100 batters last year and 97 the year before, but had an ERA of 3.20 last year thanks to surrenduring only 152 total hits. This could be a big breakout year for him. His win total of 14 last year was his best, but he has the ability and has had the numbers to easily win more. Count on perhaps 17-18 wins this year if there are no problems.

Mark Prior is something else. He had the strongest sophomore season of anyone pitcher in baseball since Doc Gooden going 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA in 211.1 innings while striking out 245 and walking only 50 batters. He is only 23 and is far from his prime. Imagine combining Kerry Woods and Greg Maddux and this is what you get. Or perhaps consider a Pedro Martinez who can pitch into the eighth inning without hurting himself. He is likely the best pitcher in baseball. His stuff is electric and shows command and a very mature level of control. As if that weren't enough, he can also hit the baseball! Projection: 21 wins, 2.50 Era, 260 Strikeouts.
_________________
This and other statistics can be culled from Jeremy Reimer's Personal Computer Market Share: 1975-2002, a very impressive piece of information gathering. The numbers tell some very interesting stories.
- http://lowendmac.com/musings/03/0131.html

Man, I need to get out more. You know smam is getting to you when you go to a canadian restaurant and start wondering about moose cock. -OscarWilde

Torturing a dog or a cat for sport is not disgusting because animals have rights, it is repugnant because human beings have obligations. If animals look to us as gods, and we in turn torture them, have we not willingly made ourselves into devils? -Johan Goldberg http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2003852165_goldberg27.html

You are a strange creature, Jeremy. *

[Imitation Gruel]

Go Cubs!

Thanks for getting to this, AYB. I'd been waiting for it, although not thinking of it since the older thread dropped out of sight.
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"It is well that war is so terrible - we should grow too fond of it." -- Robert E. Lee

"[t]hat this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom—and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth." -- the end of Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg address

"For some of us Amdahl is not knocking at the door -- he broke in some time ago while we weren't looking, drank all our booze, and is lying passed out on the floor in a pool of vomit." -- Ian Ameline over at RealWorldTech

[B Retep]

I used to rent a flat in Skokie.

I could walk to the Metra/El and in 15 minutes be sitting in the Bleachers drinking a $4.50 luke warm Old Style out of a soggy paper cup.

I miss thows days.

EDIT: Oh yeah... GO CUBS!!
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Infinitus est numerus stultorum

[Mord]

I went to an NHL game on Friday night and paid $7.00 for beer. Pretty big cup though.
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Gabe: I wish you weren't a fucking liar.
Tycho: I'm not a liar.
Gabe: Well, I wish you didn't lie.